Last Week: 7-8
Season: 52-40-4
Poor ending to week 12, solid start to week 13. On Thursday night I picked Seattle to cover the +3 v. Philly. Why? Teams traveling 1500 miles or more on Thursday night are now 0-13 all time straight up AND against the spread. Easy money. On to Sunday’s games…
Tennessee +2 @Buffalo – Tennessee. Just not enamored with the Bills, especially given all the injuries. Still, Tennessee has been giving me fits this year though, so this one makes me nervous.
Kansas City +7 @Chicago - Chicago. What the hell is my problem? Caleb, just please don’t throw 4 interceptions.
Oakland +3.5 @Miami – Miami. They’ve been REALLY good at home lately. I’m not ignoring that.
Cincinnati +6.5 @Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh. The Bengals are 5-0 against the spread on the road, 4-1 as the dog, and 3-0 as the road dog this year. But Pittsburgh has covered in all 3 of their last meetings with Cincy. In the end I just think the Steelers are that much better.
Baltimore -7 @Cleveland - Baltimore. Another tough one, and I don’t feel too great about it. Baltimore has been terrible on the road as the favorite against the spread this year (1-3). However, Baltimore has covered or pushed in 6 of 7 match-ups with Cleveland since 2007. Also, against the spread in this match-up since 2007, the away team is 4-2, the favorite is 4-2, and the road favorite is 2-0. Sold.
NY Jets -3 @Washington – NY Jets. Nothing to be confident about in this match-up. The Jets are 1-4 against the spread on the road, but I don’t see how the Redskins can win this game, so giving up the 3 points doesn’t bother me much.
Atlanta -1.5 @Houston - Atlanta. We’re about to find out how much Matt Schaub means to the Texans. I think this will be a close game, but only one of these teams will be able to score at will in the fourth quarter.
Carolina +2 -1.5 @Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay. Carolina. Not much to like here, and I’m going to regret this if Freeman doesn’t play. But assuming he does, Tampa should cover. Carolina has not been impressive lately and Tampa, despite losing 5 straight, actually looks like they’re on the up-swing. Not sure if this is legal, but a last minute audible nonetheless. Josh Freeman is not playing. Advantage Panthers.
Detroit +9 @New Orleans – Detroit. New Orleans has covered every single number they’ve seen at home this year, including -13.5(Ind), -8.5(TB), and -7(NYG). This is too much though. The absence of Suh will hurt, but they’ll stay in this game.
Denver -1 @Minnesota – Denver. The Broncos are 5-1 on the road against the number this season. Without Adrian Peterson, Minnesota is powerless. Denver wins 3-0.
St. Louis +13.5 @San Francisco – St. Louis. SF is 9-1 against the spread this season, only missing the mark last Thursday in Baltimore. They’re 5-0 at home, 6-0 as the favorite, and 5-0 as the home favorite. The Rams, on the other hand, are 2-9 overall against the spread, 1-4 on the road, 2-7 as the dog, and 1-4 as the road dog. So why pick the Rams? Because nobody goes 15-1 or 2-14 at the window. ‘Tis the season for regressions back to the mean. Consider this: the undefeated 2007-2008 Patriots were 9-1 against the spread to start the season. Starting in week 12, they finished the regular season 1-5 at the window AND failed to cover in all 3 playoff games. I’m not saying the ’9ers are that good, but clearly the same principle applies. They’re good and to this point the line has not reflected just how good they are. Now that it does it’s time to jump off the wagon.
Dallas -4.5 @Arizona – Dallas. 10-foot pole award winner. I hate picking the Cowboys on the road but there’s no reason to trust Arizona either. Watch and wince.
NY Giants +6 @Green Bay – Green Bay. The Giants are the next victim and they’re not getting enough points.
Indianapolis +20 @New England – Indianapolis. I pick almost no underdogs and one of them is the Colts!? Well here’s why. Since 2006, only 4 games have featured point spreads of 19 or greater. All of those games featured the 2007 Patriots. All of them were covered by the underdog. None of those dogs were quite as bad as this year’s Colts, but then again this NE team isn’t quite as good as that one was either. The odds-makers are licking their chops at this one. Take the points.
San Diego -3 @Jacksonville – Jacksonville. Since 2006, the Chargers are 1-5 as the road favorite on the east coast. That one cover came in 2006. San Diego is still getting too much credit. The books will make big money on this one.
